Vol. I · No. 28 · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
USDA AMS Wire · Free Weekly
From the Wire / Long-form analysis

HayWire Briefs.

Hay market analysis, price reports, and regional auction data — built from USDA AMS records across 100 markets. No fluff, no filler. Just the numbers and what they mean.

Hay Prices Explode to $483/Ton as Western Buyers Panic Buy

Colorado timothy hit $483/ton this week — a number that would have seemed impossible six months ago. California premium alfalfa is trading at $429/ton. Meanwhile, Rock Valley, Iowa is still clearing loads at $135–224/ton. The $259 gap between those two markets is the entire story of the 2026 hay market: the West is in crisis mode, and the Midwest hasn't caught up yet.

Read the analysis
$483
CO Timothy / ton
$259
E–W spread

18 months of drought, China back in the market: what hay buyers need to know.

Drought has now hit 57% of US hay acres. First cutting is light across Texas and Oklahoma. Montana has sold through its 2025 carryover. And China is back in the export market — joined by elevated volumes from Japan and Korea. At the same auction on the same day, Utility hay traded at $108/ton while Supreme went for $273. That $165 quality spread is your signal.

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57%
US acres drought
$165
Quality spread

Why is hay so expensive? The six forces that set hay prices.

Hay has no futures market — the price is discovered at hundreds of local auctions, every week. Quality grades that spread $150/ton on the same floor, drought that squeezes supply and demand at once, diesel, herd numbers, freight, and export buyers at the ports: how each force moves the number, with links to the USDA source reports.

Read the explainer
6
Price forces
$165
Quality spread

Hay slips to $170 nationally as drought pockets firm

The alfalfa benchmark eased to $170.09/ton this week, down 3% across six markets. But averages hide the split: Nebraska's Platte Valley jumped 48.1% while Iowa sat at $120. Drought, diesel, and a reopening cattle border all pull in different directions.

Read the analysis
$170.09
Alfalfa benchmark
+48.1%
Platte Valley WoW

Cattle futures cracked. The hay demand floor held.

Feeder cattle went limit down $10 the day the Mexico border reopening hit the wire. The hay benchmark climbed anyway -- up 3.1% to $182.75/ton. When cattle futures and hay demand disagree, follow the animals on feed.

Read the analysis
$182.75
Hay benchmark
11.37M
Cattle on feed

The evidence file.

52 supporting findings · every point sourced
EIA · Aug 31, 2026
U.S. diesel $5.60/gal, down $0.05 week over week
USDA NASS · Aug 2026
Cattle on feed 11.12M head, +1.8% vs a year ago
USDA NASS · May 1, 2026
Hay stocks 23.3M tons (48 states)
US Drought Monitor status
40.01% US / 47.84% Lower 48 in drought
Fortune
US reopening Mexico cattle border after 14-month screwworm ban
DTNPF
Reopening begins August 24, 2026 at Douglas AZ port
DTNPF
Phase 2 adds Santa Teresa NM and Columbus NM
Pro Farmer
Feeder cattle limit down $10 on the news
Cattle sold off on Mexico border news
Bloomberg
Tyson +6.9%, JBS +7.7% on news
Fortune
Ban was due to New World screwworm
FOX 5
US cattle herd at 75-year low
USDA
Corn 63% good/excellent
Down 4 points from 67% previous week
DTNPF
10 points below last year's 73%
USDA
Kansas corn 54% G/E (Good 42 + Excellent 12)
USDA
North Dakota corn 50% G/E (Good 48 + Excellent 2)
Biggest one-week drop since 2023
CME Group
Next USDA Crop Progress release Monday 4pm ET
Iowa Beef Center
Corn-to-hay substitution economics
Bloomberg
Bloomberg Odd Lots feature June 12, 2026
US Drought Monitor
Half of Colorado in extreme drought D3
USDA NASS
Colorado pasture only 2% good/excellent
USDA AMS
PA hay report
US Drought Monitor
Wisconsin Drought Monitor status
USDA NASS
Wisconsin hay/alfalfa condition
USDA NASS
Corn condition drop confirmed by USDA
CME Group
Corn futures move
Texas A&M AgriLife
Texas A&M economist David Anderson on cattle prices
USDA NASS
US cattle herd at 75-year low
Capital Press
Idaho/Washington active wildfires, 40,000+ acres
USDA AMS
Columbia Basin hay export corridor
USDA
Aug 12 WASDE release, 12:00 PM ET
US Drought Monitor
USDA Drought Monitor Thursday
USDA NASS
USDA Crop Progress Monday 4 PM ET
BBC
BBC beef prices coverage
USDA NASS
US cattle herd at 75-year low
Tyson IR
Tyson Foods beef volumes -15.9%
USDA NASS
US cattle herd at 75-year low
USDA
WASDE August release calendar
DTN Progressive Farmer
August WASDE first survey-based yield report
Charles Schwab
Analyst estimate 182.5 bpa corn
USDA AMS
USDA hay pricing by bale type
USDA
WASDE Aug 12 release 11 AM CT
DTN Progressive Farmer
First survey-based yield estimate
Ranch It Up
316-lb calves sold at $750/cwt Pratt Livestock KS
RFD-TV
Corn yield cut to 180.7 bpa
Bloomberg
Corn futures biggest one-day rally since June, USDA cut bigger than expected
BNN Bloomberg
Corn production 16.013 billion bu, 2nd largest ever
Mitrade
Wheat futures up 2%, global supply tightening
USDA NASS Crop Values
Hay is a $15 billion US market
— END OF ISSUE —

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