§01
May 19, 2026
Market
Colorado timothy hit $483/ton this week — a number that would have seemed impossible six months ago. California premium alfalfa is trading at $429/ton. Meanwhile, Rock Valley, Iowa is still clearing loads at $135–224/ton. The $259 gap between those two markets is the entire story of the 2026 hay market: the West is in crisis mode, and the Midwest hasn't caught up yet.
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§02
April 28, 2026
Forecast
Missouri supreme alfalfa jumped $113/ton in a single week. Dakota SD good alfalfa moved $50/ton. Rock Valley buyers are now driving further distances than they were six months ago. The Midwest is quietly becoming the western backstop — and most buyers haven't priced that in yet.
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§03
May 22, 2026
Drought
Drought has now hit 57% of US hay acres. First cutting is light across Texas and Oklahoma. Montana has sold through its 2025 carryover. And China is back in the export market — joined by elevated volumes from Japan and Korea. At the same auction on the same day, Utility hay traded at $108/ton while Supreme went for $273. That $165 quality spread is your signal.
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§04
August 2, 2026
Explainer
Hay has no futures market — the price is discovered at hundreds of local auctions, every week. Quality grades that spread $150/ton on the same floor, drought that squeezes supply and demand at once, diesel, herd numbers, freight, and export buyers at the ports: how each force moves the number, with links to the USDA source reports.
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§05
August 2, 2026
Market
The alfalfa benchmark eased to $170.09/ton this week, down 3% across six markets. But averages hide the split: Nebraska's Platte Valley jumped 48.1% while Iowa sat at $120. Drought, diesel, and a reopening cattle border all pull in different directions.
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$170.09
Alfalfa benchmark
§06
August 23, 2026
Market
Feeder cattle went limit down $10 the day the Mexico border reopening hit the wire. The hay benchmark climbed anyway -- up 3.1% to $182.75/ton. When cattle futures and hay demand disagree, follow the animals on feed.
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§07
September 7, 2026
Market
The benchmark went nowhere this week — down three cents shy of a dollar. But one auction in South Dakota broke ranks and ran 10% higher, opening a $63 gap over Iowa. The split says more than the average does.
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§08
September 22, 2026
Market
The national benchmark eased to $170/ton and the alfalfa composite printed down 18.6%. Meanwhile good alfalfa averaged $202/ton across four markets, up $9 on the week, and orchard grass jumped 18%. One of those numbers describes a market; the others describe a sales mix.
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§09
October 6, 2026
Forecast
Commodity alfalfa is softening on an 8-week trend of about $7/ton per week. Nearly everything around it went up. That split tells you whether to book winter hay now or let it come to you.
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$156/ton
Alfalfa avg, -6.6%
$202/ton
Good alfalfa, +2.9%