Vol. I · No. 33 · Tuesday, October 6, 2026
USDA AMS Wire · Free Weekly
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The Record · Updated weekly

The Call.

One market call a week. Logged in public the day we make it, then graded against USDA auction data when the window closes. We grade ourselves — nobody else in hay does.

Published the day we called it — never edited. Every call below is graded against public USDA AMS auction reports you can pull yourself.

The field so far
18 calls planted · 13 graded · since May 19, 2026
No. 13
May 19
No. 14
Jun 13
No. 15
Jun 19
No. 16
Jun 26
No. 17
Jul 3
No. 18
Jul 10
No. 19
Jul 17
No. 20
Jul 24
No. 21
Jul 31
No. 22
Aug 7
No. 23
Aug 14
No. 24
Aug 21
No. 25
Aug 28
No. 26
Sep 4
No. 27
Sep 11
No. 28
Sep 18
No. 29
Sep 25
No. 30
Oct 2
Next
Oct 9
Correct Mixed Incorrect Pending result
18
Calls Logged
Every one, in public
13
Graded vs USDA
7 correct · 4 mixed · 2 off · 4 no report
1
Pending Result
Grading on schedule
Oct 9
Next Grade
Issue No. 28 settles
§01 How we grade The Call
1

We make one call

Each Friday, Pro members get a single, specific market call in the Pulse — with a clear claim, the price levels it will be checked against, and a date. The verdict posts here the same week; the levels and the reasoning post when the call grades.

2

The market settles it

When the window closes, we pull the USDA AMS auction reports for that market and read the actual trades — the same public data anyone can look up.

USDA AMS Market News
3

We score it honestly

Correct, mixed, or incorrect — with every threshold and the realized number shown. Misses stay on the record. Nothing gets edited or quietly deleted after the fact.

§02 The ledger Every call, in order
Sep 11, 2026
Issue No. 27
Mixed · 1/2
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"The market is easing off its highs, Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $135/ton while Supreme holds above $183/ton and the quality spread holds near $132/ton through October 02, 2026. Benchmark ~$212/ton as context. Buyers have room to negotiate, especially on loads close to home."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $183/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 227.77, needed > 183
  • MISSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $132)realized 85, needed >= 132

Why it graded this waySupreme carried the call, averaging 227.77 against the 183 line you committed to. The quality spread is what broke it: 85 against a 132 baseline, a narrowing that left top hay strong but the gap below it thin.

Made Sep 11 / Graded Oct 2 / Verify against USDA
Oct 2, 2026
Issue No. 30
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"No graded call this week — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week. We grade against real auction trades or not at all; the next gradeable call posts when the auction reports."
Result

Not graded — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week

declared a data-gap week rather than grading the composition-noisy benchmark.

Made Oct 2 / Resolved Oct 2 / Verify against USDA
Sep 4, 2026
Issue No. 26
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"Prices are edging up, so if you're buying, Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $154/ton while Supreme holds above $198/ton and the quality spread holds near $77/ton through September 25, 2026. Benchmark ~$220/ton as context. Book what you need now before sellers gain more ground."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $154/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 105.0, needed <= 154
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $198/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 226.28, needed > 198
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $77)realized 172, needed >= 77

Why it graded this wayAll three levels held: Utility/Fair came in at 105.0 against a 154 ceiling, Supreme averaged 226.28 over the 198 floor, and the quality spread widened to 172 from the 77 baseline.

Made Sep 4 / Graded Sep 25 / Verify against USDA
Sep 25, 2026
Issue No. 29
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"No graded call this week — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week. We grade against real auction trades or not at all; the next gradeable call posts when the auction reports."
Result

Not graded — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week

declared a data-gap week rather than grading the composition-noisy benchmark.

Made Sep 25 / Resolved Sep 25 / Verify against USDA
Aug 28, 2026
Issue No. 25
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Prices are sitting still this week, Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $160/ton while Supreme holds above $194/ton and the quality spread holds near $74/ton through September 18, 2026. Benchmark ~$211/ton as context. If you're buying, plan for the wide gap between utility and top hay."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $160/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 130.79, needed <= 160
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $194/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 212.06, needed > 194
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $74)realized 110, needed >= 74

Why it graded this wayAll three levels held. Utility/Fair came in at 130.79, well under the 160 ceiling, while Supreme averaged 212.06 against the 194 floor. That pushed the quality spread to 110, up from the 74 baseline.

Made Aug 28 / Graded Sep 18 / Verify against USDA
Aug 21, 2026
Issue No. 24
Mixed · 2/3
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $151/ton while Supreme holds above $195/ton and the quality spread holds near $76/ton through September 11, 2026. Benchmark ~$209/ton as context. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $151/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 120.62, needed <= 151
  • MISSRock Valley Supreme stays above $195/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 195.0, needed > 195
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $76)realized 150, needed >= 76

Why it graded this wayTwo of three held: Utility/Fair came in at 120.62, well under the 151 ceiling, and the quality spread widened to 150 against a 76 baseline. Supreme landed at exactly 195.0, which missed a call needing more than 195.

Made Aug 21 / Graded Sep 11 / Verify against USDA
Aug 14, 2026
Issue No. 23
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"The quality bid keeps firming — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton through September 04, 2026. Benchmark ~$218/ton as context. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 137.5, needed <= 152

Why it graded this wayThe call held. Rock Valley Utility/Fair needed to stay at or below $152/ton, and it came in at 137.5, a clear margin under the line, so this one grades correct for buyers of the low-grade stuff.

Made Aug 14 / Graded Sep 4 / Verify against USDA
Aug 7, 2026
Issue No. 22
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $162/ton while Supreme holds above $200/ton and the quality spread holds near $75/ton through August 28, 2026. Benchmark ~$204/ton as context. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $162/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 107.5, needed <= 162
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $200/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 206.67, needed > 200
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $75)realized 125, needed >= 75
Made Aug 7 / Graded Aug 28 / Verify against USDA
Jul 31, 2026
Issue No. 21
Mixed · 2/3
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $130/ton while Supreme holds above $186/ton and the quality spread holds near $97/ton through August 21, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $130/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 130.0, needed <= 130
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $186/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 211.67, needed > 186
  • MISSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $97)realized 90, needed >= 97
Made Jul 31 / Graded Aug 21 / Verify against USDA
Jul 24, 2026
Issue No. 20
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $141/ton while Supreme holds above $196/ton and the quality spread holds near $106/ton through August 14, 2026. Benchmark ~$202/ton as context. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $141/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 135.83, needed <= 141
Made Jul 24 / Graded Aug 14 / Verify against USDA
Jul 10, 2026
Issue No. 18
Incorrect
National · Low confidence
"Range-bound nationally through July 31, 2026, benchmark ~$267/ton, with firming pockets where supply is tight AND demand is real (California). No broad rally without the drought West's demand returning or a weather shift. Watch California — the pocket where tight supply meets real demand."
Result

Benchmark $267 -> $219 (-18.0%)

predicted steady.

Made Jul 10 / Graded Jul 31 / Verify against USDA
Jun 26, 2026
Issue No. 16
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton while Supreme holds above $186/ton and the quality spread holds near $86/ton through July 17, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 126.25, needed <= 152
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $186/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 208.14, needed > 186
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $86)realized 120, needed >= 86
Made Jun 26 / Graded Jul 24 / Verify against USDA
Jul 3, 2026
Issue No. 17
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton while Supreme holds above $186/ton and the quality spread holds near $86/ton through July 24, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 126.25, needed <= 152
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $186/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 208.14, needed > 186
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $86)realized 120, needed >= 86
Made Jul 3 / Graded Jul 24 / Verify against USDA
Jun 19, 2026
Issue No. 15
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $145/ton through July 10, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result

Not graded — no usable Rock Valley report landed within the grade window (2026-07-10 ±7 days). Recorded as no data: not a win, not a loss.

Made Jun 19 / Resolved Jul 20 / Verify against USDA
Jul 17, 2026
Issue No. 19
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"No graded call this week — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week. We grade against real auction trades or not at all; the next gradeable call posts when the auction reports."
Result

Not graded — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week

declared a data-gap week rather than grading the composition-noisy benchmark.

Made Jul 17 / Resolved Jul 17 / Verify against USDA
Jun 13, 2026
Issue No. 14
Incorrect
National · Low confidence
"Range-bound nationally through July 04, 2026, with firming pockets where supply is tight AND demand is real (California). No broad rally without the drought West's demand returning or a weather shift. Nebraska is the hinge to watch."
Result

Benchmark $196 -> $206 (+4.7%)

predicted steady.

Made Jun 13 / Graded Jul 6 / Verify against USDA
May 19, 2026
Issue No. 13
Mixed · 2/3
Rock Valley, IA · High confidence
"Quality spread holds or widens through June 15. Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton at Rock Valley while Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton. Buyers continue paying up for quality ahead of first cutting."
Result
  • MISSRock Valley Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 196.06, needed > 200
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 101.88, needed < 135
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $166 on 2026-05-18)realized 184, needed >= 166
Made May 19 / Graded Jun 15 / Verify against USDA
Sep 18, 2026
Issue No. 28
Pending
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"STEADY nationally — but hold in the firming pockets."

Pro members have the 3 price levels being graded and the reasoning behind them in Friday's Pulse. They post here in full when this call grades. Join Pro to read the next one first.

Sent to Pro members Sep 18 / Grades Oct 9, 2026
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