Vol. I · No. 22 · Tuesday, July 28, 2026
USDA AMS Wire · Free Weekly
The Record · Updated weekly

The Call.

One market call a week. Logged in public the day we make it, then graded against USDA auction data when the window closes. We grade ourselves — nobody else in hay does.

Published the day we called it — never edited. Every call below is graded against public USDA AMS auction reports you can pull yourself.

The field so far
8 calls planted · 4 graded · since May 19, 2026
No. 13
May 19
No. 14
Jun 13
No. 15
Jun 19
No. 16
Jun 26
No. 17
Jul 3
No. 18
Jul 10
No. 19
Jul 17
No. 20
Jul 24
Next
Jul 31
Correct Mixed Incorrect Pending result
8
Calls Logged
Every one, in public
4
Graded vs USDA
2 correct · 1 mixed · 1 off · 2 no report
2
Pending Result
Grading on schedule
Jul 31
Next Grade
Issue No. 18 settles
§01 How we grade The Call
1

We make one call

Each Friday, Pro members get a single, specific market call in the Pulse — with a clear claim and a date it can be checked against. It posts here the same week.

2

The market settles it

When the window closes, we pull the USDA AMS auction reports for that market and read the actual trades — the same public data anyone can look up.

USDA AMS Market News
3

We score it honestly

Correct, mixed, or incorrect — with every threshold and the realized number shown. Misses stay on the record. Nothing gets edited or quietly deleted after the fact.

§02 The ledger Every call, in order
Jun 26, 2026
Issue No. 16
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton while Supreme holds above $186/ton and the quality spread holds near $86/ton through July 17, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 126.25, needed <= 152
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $186/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 208.14, needed > 186
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $86)realized 120, needed >= 86
Made Jun 26 / Graded Jul 24 / Verify against USDA
Jul 3, 2026
Issue No. 17
Correct
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton while Supreme holds above $186/ton and the quality spread holds near $86/ton through July 24, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $152/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 126.25, needed <= 152
  • PASSRock Valley Supreme stays above $186/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 208.14, needed > 186
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $86)realized 120, needed >= 86
Made Jul 3 / Graded Jul 24 / Verify against USDA
Jun 19, 2026
Issue No. 15
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $145/ton through July 10, 2026. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Result

Not graded — no usable Rock Valley report landed within the grade window (2026-07-10 ±7 days). Recorded as no data: not a win, not a loss.

Made Jun 19 / Resolved Jul 20 / Verify against USDA
Jul 17, 2026
Issue No. 19
No report
Rock Valley, IA · Low confidence
"No graded call this week — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week. We grade against real auction trades or not at all; the next gradeable call posts when the auction reports."
Result

Not graded — Rock Valley — the auction our graded quality levels come from — published no fresh quality trades this week

declared a data-gap week rather than grading the composition-noisy benchmark.

Made Jul 17 / Resolved Jul 17 / Verify against USDA
Jun 13, 2026
Issue No. 14
Incorrect
National · Low confidence
"Range-bound nationally through July 04, 2026, with firming pockets where supply is tight AND demand is real (California). No broad rally without the drought West's demand returning or a weather shift. Nebraska is the hinge to watch."
Result

Benchmark $196 -> $206 (+4.7%)

predicted steady.

Made Jun 13 / Graded Jul 6 / Verify against USDA
May 19, 2026
Issue No. 13
Mixed · 2/3
Rock Valley, IA · High confidence
"Quality spread holds or widens through June 15. Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton at Rock Valley while Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton. Buyers continue paying up for quality ahead of first cutting."
Result
  • MISSRock Valley Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)realized 196.06, needed > 200
  • PASSRock Valley Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)realized 101.88, needed < 135
  • PASSQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $166 on 2026-05-18)realized 184, needed >= 166
Made May 19 / Graded Jun 15 / Verify against USDA
Jul 24, 2026
Issue No. 20
Pending
Rock Valley, IA · Medium confidence
"Holding the line — Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $141/ton while Supreme holds above $196/ton and the quality spread holds near $106/ton through August 14, 2026. Benchmark ~$202/ton as context. Buyers still paying up for quality."
Grading these on Aug 14, 2026
  • GradingRock Valley Utility/Fair stays at or below $141/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades)
  • GradingRock Valley Supreme stays above $196/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades)
  • GradingQuality spread holds or widens (baseline $106)
Why we made this call

Rock Valley Utility sits at $126.25 per ton and Supreme at $208.14 per ton, with the quality spread at $120 per ton, so the premium for top hay is holding wide. The benchmark at $202 per ton is rising, and demand looks firm underneath it: cattle on feed at 11.68M head, up 2.1 percent from a year ago, keeps a floor in. Drought stays locked across Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming while Kansas and California pull hard, and hay stocks at 23.3M tons are tightening. Diesel at $5.13 per gallon, up $0.34 week over week, adds cost to delivered loads.

Sent to Pro members Jul 24 / Grades Aug 14, 2026
Jul 10, 2026
Issue No. 18
Pending
National · Low confidence
"Range-bound nationally through July 31, 2026, benchmark ~$267/ton, with firming pockets where supply is tight AND demand is real (California). No broad rally without the drought West's demand returning or a weather shift. Watch California — the pocket where tight supply meets real demand."
Why we made this call

No single direction nationally — strength and slack offset this week. Drought-locked — supply AND demand both light (a supply-loss story, not a price story yet): Utah, Montana. Strongest demand: California. Trade benchmark rising (~$267/ton).

Sent to Pro members Jul 10 / Grades Jul 31, 2026
A young record — and a growing one. New call every Friday.
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