This week in 60 seconds.
Rock Valley recovered to $175–224/ton on Premium/Supreme alfalfa after last week's dip — the market confirmed demand is still there. A contact at Rock Valley confirmed it this week: "Market ain't stopping yet. Supply is tightening."
Colorado timothy still at $483/ton. Eastern dairy markets holding firm. The quality premium is widening. Supply is getting tighter, not looser, heading into first cutting.
3 things to watch Monday.
Rock Valley consignment volume
Heavy = sellers moving pre-first-cutting inventory. Light again = premium holds or climbs. Volume tells you more than price right now.
Colorado and Wyoming bi-weekly reports
Both due next week. Last reported: Colorado timothy $483/ton, Wyoming $375–380/ton. Drought hasn't eased. Expect both to hold or move higher.
Southern first cutting results
Oklahoma and Texas already cutting. If prices hold firm despite new supply — demand is absorbing everything and Midwest prices have nowhere to go but up.
The Call.
The quality spread is your signal this week. Rock Valley's gap between Utility/Fair and Premium/Supreme is $66/ton — $3,300 extra on 50 tons for the same number of bales.
That spread exists because serious buyers are competing hard for quality and walking away from everything else. Here's exactly what to do about it depending on your position…
If you're buying — pay for quality or wait. If you're selling with quality — this is your window. If you're timing first cutting — here's the bet you're making and whether the data supports it…
The next 2–3 weeks: here's where I think prices go and why. The drought variable, the first cutting wildcard, and the one number that changes everything.