Issue #14 · May 26, 2026 · Source: USDA AMS · read on Beehiiv
The 30-second version
Drought is rebuilding in the Plains — Nebraska, Kansas, and the eastern Dakotas are showing D2 and D3 conditions just as first cutting starts.
Missouri is the signal market — $162/ton for good alfalfa, $20 above the core Midwest pack. When Missouri moves, Iowa and South Dakota tend to follow in 2-3 weeks.
Buyers are getting aggressive early — Nebraska reports show buyers locking in hay before it's been cut. That doesn't happen in calm markets.
Rock Valley is the benchmark. Missouri is the signal. Drought is the catalyst.
The real story: buyers aren't waiting
The most interesting data point this week isn't a price. It's a behavior.
Nebraska reports show buyers contracting new-crop hay before first cutting is in the field. That's a supply confidence signal — buyers don't lock prices ahead of harvest unless they think the alternative is worse. Last year's carryover is gone. First cutting has to deliver. If it doesn't, buyers who waited will pay for it.
Same pattern we flagged in Wyoming and Colorado three weeks ago, just shifted east.
Drought watch
D3 (Extreme): Western Kansas, parts of western Nebraska, eastern Colorado
D2 (Severe): Most of Kansas, central Nebraska, eastern South Dakota
D1 (Moderate): Northern Missouri, Iowa, southern Minnesota
No change: Wyoming, Montana still tight
If June rain doesn't show up, the same regions that ran out of carryover in 2025 are setting up for a repeat.
This week's auction board
Good alfalfa benchmark, low to high:
Region
$/ton
Madison County, IL
$64
Kansas
$81
Nebraska
$91
Iowa
$96
Rock Valley, IA (Mon)
$122
Pipestone, MN
$128
South Dakota
$130
Dakota, SD
$137
Rock Valley, IA (Thu)
$142 (Midwest leader)
Missouri
$162 (signal market)
Shipshewana, IN
$245
Source: USDA AMS · HayWire data pipeline
Quality spread is doing the work
Pipestone fair alfalfa is sitting at $50–105/ton — a $50+ discount to good alfalfa in the same region. The spread isn't narrowing, it's holding wide.
When the market is tight on quality, fair hay doesn't get bid up just because supply is short. Buyers pay for what works in their ration and walk away from what doesn't. That's the difference between a hay shortage and a quality shortage.
Right now we have the second one.
Bottom line
Hay is not trading like one national commodity. It's a local drought-and-freight market, and the local stories are diverging fast.
The benchmark is Rock Valley. The signal is Missouri. The catalyst is whatever the sky does in June.
Data is power. See you next Tuesday.
Forward this to one hay buyer, seller, or cattle producer who needs to know where the market is actually moving.
Want more? Friday Pulse goes deeper — directional reads, historical data, the buy/wait/hold call. https://haywireag.com/pro