Issue #14 · June 2, 2026 · Source: USDA AMS · read on Beehiiv
THE 30-SECOND READ
The supply screws are turning in the West. Wyoming auctions are sold out. Utah and Montana are reporting "very light" supply as drought bites Utah's entire state sits in moderate-or-worse drought. Meanwhile the strongest-demand markets in the country, Nebraska and California, are also short on hay — Nebraska's holding light tonnage into summer "due to lack of moisture," and California's export and dairy buyers are paying up.
Translation: if you're holding quality hay in or near a dry region, time is on your side. If you're buying, the cheap window is closing.
THE MARKET READ — WHO'S TIGHT, WHO'S FLUSH
Region
Demand
Supply
What it means
Wyoming
Steady
Sold out
Nothing left to move — sellers' market
Utah
Very light
Very light
Drought-locked; thin trade both sides
Montana
Very light
Very light
Quality horse hay wanted, supply scarce
Nebraska
Very good
Light
Firming — "tonnage light this summer, lack of moisture"
California
Very good
Good
Export + dairy demand strong, retail steady
Colorado
Good
Good
Balanced, holding
Kansas / Oregon
Moderate
Moderate
Steady, no pressure either way
The pattern: demand is concentrated where supply is shortest. That's the setup that moves prices.
WHAT SOLD THIS WEEK (REPORTED USDA TRADES)
Midwest, good large-round alfalfa ran roughly $150–$215/ton across auctions (Pipestone MN ~$150, Rock Valley IA ~$162, Dakota SD ~$215) — these are individual reported sales, not asking prices.
Top of the national board — Premium hay:
Wolgemuth, PA — Premium alfalfa/grass: $405 & $400/ton
California — Premium Teff: $345/ton
Wolgemuth, PA — Premium grass: $336/ton
Alabama — Premium Bermuda: $327/ton
Eastern dairy country (Wolgemuth) is still paying the most in the country for premium — the dairy bid hasn't blinked.
THE TAKEAWAY
If you're selling quality hay: the West and Plains are tightening into summer with no moisture relief in sight. This is a hold-and-watch market, not a dump-it market — especially for premium and for anything within trucking distance of Wyoming, Utah, Montana, or Nebraska.
If you're buying: lock in needs ahead of the dry-season squeeze, particularly dairy and horse-quality hay. The markets that are "moderate" today (Kansas, Oregon, Colorado) are where the value still is.
Watch next: Nebraska. It's the hinge — very good demand on light, moisture-starved supply. If Nebraska firms further, the Plains follow.
🌾 FROM THE FIELD
Community-reported, not USDA-verified — four real reports from subscribers this week.
Grower
Report
Est.
California
Premium alfalfa, 3-string ~100 lb
$24/bale (~$480/ton)
NE Washington
Good alfalfa, 110 lb
$20/bale (~$364/ton)
Oklahoma
Supreme grass, 50 lb square
$15/bale (~$600/ton)
Erie County, PA
Premium alf/grass, 2nd cut, 45 lb
$5–7/bale (~$222–311/ton)
The kicker: the retail/small-square market runs 2–4× wholesale — the gap USDA's auction reports never show.
Got a sale price this week? Reply to this email with a quick "how'd you buy it / bale weight" so we can line it up against USDA cleanly. Submit your price →
P.S. — Buying, selling, or just tracking? Hit reply, one line. It shapes what I dig into next week.